I strongly believe what we are witnessing right now is action into the 80 week low. The problem is that this is a longer cycle low hence for it to expand by a couple of weeks or 3 weeks even can be considered normal.
Expect more ups and downs - We should hold 4500-4450 area for this low. I would like it if we can hold the 4600 area but if that breaks, then we should see 4500-4450 area which I think will hold. Oh and I should also mention that 4700 first needs to break before entertaining any bigger bearish targets. Go from point to point and dont get greedy since we are so late in this cycle. Maybe we touch 4720, go up to 4900 and then do the final down to 4600 or slightly below - dont know just speculation for now. But it might happen quite quickly.
I know that there is a lot more possibility of big downs from here - but that is what we should expect in this cycle. But being short is also not easy due to the large swings going on. I am trying to trade here but its going back and forth too quickly - hence not easy. So I am trying to mostly scalp nowadays while we wait for the 80 week low. There are some ways of confirming that the 80 week low is in - I will explain this another day but I am keeping an eye on it.
BTW, I have replied to comments in earlier post.
Best,
Lee
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3 comments:
Hi Lee,
4700 broken today and new low is 4641.
regards
Hi Nandi,
Yes. I did this post in my evening before our market open when Nifty was above 4800. So our rush to the 80 week low continues. We dont know when this will end and honestly is like catching a falling knife.
Today 2011 and 2010 lows broke. Not a good sign. Will come back with some more thoughts later tonight. I am totally flat now but have a buy point in mind. Will update later.
Best,
Lee
I dont have too much of an update. Yesterday's post still stands. If I get time, I will do a more detailed post today. Bottom line is we are building the 80 week low. It might be lower from here around the 4500 level but after it comes we can expect a decent rally for few weeks to months atleast. But overall the longer term picture has changed - Meaning like I had mentioned before, we will see lower next year sometime..Maybe much lower.
(read my 'review' from 2 days back again)
Best,
Lee
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