Thats it. Nothing else can describe past few weeks move. Just in one day, gains of several days were wiped out..In a few hours infact.
I just wanted to put up a quick update before going out. Once I am back I will add more details and charts as well.
Now, as I mentioned, I covered 25-30% of shorts..covered a bit more also but couldnt post. Idea was just to be safer - and also its a psychological thing. Once you cover few, you reduce your cost and things become much more easier on you. Thats what I did and slept very nicely.
So now, today a gap down open is very likely..And I expect over next few days we MIGHT try to consolidate here before breaking the 4800 level - After which we should see another free fall. I think the market might give one more opportunity to others to get short again over next 2-3 days. This is what I think. However I would never recommend going long. Shorts can either sit tight. Or part book and wait for more opportunities. The next major low is only around Oct 1st/Sep 30th timeframe. So there are quite a few more days before any sort of good playable bounce can happen - Unless ofcourse you do intraday hit and runs.
This has been an awesome trading environment. And Hurst has helped me a lot. I want to thank everyone for their comments in the earlier post - it means a lot to me. I have also replied over there to everyone..So dont miss it.
EDITS:
1. A very quick update..covered 10% more shorts and hedged the rest with 4900 calls..so now only 50%(or less) short. I will post more on this psychology later. Should have mentioned price.I did this around 4854.
2. Ok Folks. I think action so far tells us it might be a quite day - I mean relatively - i.e we might not break 4800 today. As I said before and consolidation move for a few days. Look at the fractal posted somewhere before and you can see this. Market needs to digest this move. Without that, it cannot move lower..Or even higher for that matter..You know my bias ;)
3. I dont know guys..I am taking profits here in this area on almost all shorts. 4825 Nifty. The profits are too much to ignore. So I am booking here to refresh and come back. Its good to do that. As I said I do not think it will break 4800 today. If it does, there its another quick elevator ride down to 4700 area and lower. So I dont know. I want to relax a little and take my profits - well earned I think. We will come back with a fresh mind tomorrow.
4. Oh yeah for the record. My trades since I closed them and also since I was talking about these for a while -
- Nifty Futures short from 5150(higher due to trading but for the record lets take this figure) down to 4825.
- Nov 4700 PUTS from 100 up to 205 today.
Yeah I will sleep good and relaxed today..Totally FLAT ;) Let the market crash without me if it wants to LOL.
Happy and Safe trading to all!
Best,
Lee
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16 comments:
Hi Lee,
Was eagerly waiting for your post. Thanks a lot. Yesterday booked 50% of oct puts. Will book balance today if there is a gap down and rebuy on small rallies.
Thanks lee.
Keep it up.
U r doing very good job.
I am with you Lee...!!! I had shorted at 5138(November) and covered at 4858(November)... ;)
Thanks Guys. Glad to help!
bharat, nice trade...300 pts is nothing to sneeze at..which is one reason I covered also... ;)
Lee
Just wanted to add - does not mean I am still not bearish..I am as bearish as before..But a profit is a profit. There will be an opportunity next week to re-enter. If it has to be lower, then also its fine. Its just another trade.
Best,
Lee
How much maximum upside u feel from this level. as expiry last 4 days remain. do u feel big rally ? like upto 5100 level ?
The market is not going to breach 4720 levels for next few weeks, and is setting up for a rally upto 5500+.+ve weekly closing next week will confirm Wave3 of Nifty to me..
That's my take for nxt few weeks.
How much upside do u feel. as expiry is near last 4 days remain. and possible big rally like upto 5100 level ? wat will be maximum upside u feel ?
Lee,
Can you please suggest some simple book for understanding cycle. I went through Hurst book. Its way too complicated. maybe i dont understand. But is there a simpler version of that book? More layman terms kind of book.
It would be really helpful.
kaps,
ok i am tired..cannot explain more.
this is what you said last time.
"Nifty has likely made a medium term low @4720 and should be headed for 5500-5700 levels around Diwali.So be cautious buddy"
Fine. Market was at around 5000 when you posted this comment - it was on Sept 12th - you can check.
Now market is at 4850 and you are saying same thing?
Ok fine. Maybe..maybe
I am just trying to point the way. Not making any kind of grandiose statements.
Market failed miserably to go over 5200. And thats it. End of story.
And thats what I have been saying. Without going above 5200, its not going to get anywhere close to 5500 in next 4 or 5 months. And this is just my viewpoint. Does not have to be correct. I just trade. I dont care to have a fixed position. I was bearish so shorted so made money. And now am flat. I expected some sort of bounce and we got that as well. Almost pin point I covered at the low yesterday. What else you need buddy?
Ok 5500..lets keep this in mind..Just for the record. By Diwali right? And I say below 4000 by Diwali ;) Just another grandiose statement like yours for entertainment. No substance no evidence. Thats what value both of our comments have
btw guys i am not getting upset or emotional..this is just comedy for me..I am fully flat and enjoying my profits and the weekend.
My comment about sub 4000 - it is possible but I dont want anyone to think about it now. That also can be injurious to health. We will however trade this nicely if it happens. But let the market show us its hand first.
Having present notions in the market..trying to fight the market is injurious to health. i learned this the hard way. i know when to flip back to bullish. do you know when to flip to bearish?
Best,
Lee
Made some modest profits but if I take the huge losses into consideration which I covered, I really made handsome profits in nearly two years in just two days. Like you said even minimum profit was enough for me after wiping out losses in just 2 days. Booked out completely today at open and will wait for your next levels to short again. Thanks and Regards,
Bvdr
One more reason to Thank you is I would have covered the shorts around 5130 at huge loss a regular feature of my trading in the past 2 years. Buy at high and sell at low. But your prediction of big fall in October made me go for October puts after covering nifty shorts. My old trade would have been to cut shorts and wait for 5180-5200 to short again which would not have been possible.
Bvdr
HI Lee,
I am not trying to make grandiose statements but Just putting up my viewpoint as I see it.I see good chance of Nifty going up based on my analysis.
I read yur blog ,so just posted my views too. Please don't feel offended dear.
I know market makes its move without caring for anyone's analysis.
Hi Lee.. Expect a bounce back and then re short. S&P might go upto 1168 in the short term. We shall do a dead cat along with that and re enter.
Below 4000 by Diwali. That's a month away. Hmm .. that will happen but by Diwali , OK..will watch. :)
tc
Hi Lee,
You were sleepy when you wrote "The next major low is only around Oct 1st/Sep 30th time frame." Instead of "Sep" it may be "Nov".
Regards
Bala~
Hi BVDR, I am glad to be of help. Rememeber, this is just help..you never know tomorrow if I or Kumar Sir will be there to update. Just a somber note. If you are benefitting
well and good. But your aim always should be to become self reliant. Still I am happy with your note. If my updates help even one person, I am really happy. Very serious on this!
Dear Kaps, dont want to continue this. I agree that what you are saying is possible. No doubt. But probability is low. All we are trying to do as traders is trying to gauge the probability and trade according to that. What is the probably from here to hit 4600 or to hit 5500? I think thats the way to trade. And I hope answer is clear. Ofcourse always we need to play with clear stops...Always. No point being adamant in your views. This was my point. Lets say I feel market is going to 2200 before December. What if it does not? What is my escape plan? Do you have an escape plan? You did not answer. When is the point you say you are wrong? If you cannot answer these, then I cannot help you.
See its not about being right or wrong. Its all about making money. And the odds. And money management. I will be posting more along these lines in future for those interested.
Its very simple..lets say for Monday..I give you a roadmap..I say market will go to 5000 top and go to 4900 bottom..How will you trade this? I say its guarranteed. Still I am just saying..Most ppl wont be able to trade this info and make a profit. Why? Coz of money management issues. Its important..very..Frankly knowing or forecasting the market is just 10-20%...The rest is psychology/money management. Nothing else.
Just making a prediction gets you nowhere at all. I hope I made some sense..to atleast someone. I just hope..I am almost 9 yrs in this market..Above are things I struggled with..I never understood or tried to understand things posted above..And yeah paid the price..Now I dont care where market is going..I just try to profit from it..Wherever its going..The sooner you realize this, the better or safer your bank acct will be..Seriously!
Sims, what I said above. I really dont care. Diwali..whatever. I just want to trade correctly and make some money. So Diwali..who knows..maybe market will be at 1000 then..who knows? I dont care. I just try to make money out of it.
I am flat now. I will try to create short positions on Monday, Tuesday etc..I will have points which tell me when to get out. Yes Diwali might be 1 month out. But who knows what will happen before then.
My Hurst model says BIG LOW by Nov 1st or 2nd week end. Thats all I know. I dont know what will be the price. I just to play along with the market!
Hey Bala, probably I needed to say clearly..we are in the last 10 week cycle in this 80 week cycle in this full 4.5 or 9 year cycle. SO..Now we hit the last 2.5 week low at 4900 rallied, and hit a top..And then fell sharply..So now what is pending? the 5 week low and the 10 week low..In between there will be a minor or very weak 2.5 week low. So the 5 and 10 week lows..Now 5 week low is expected around Sept 30th/Nov 1st plus or minus 2 or 3 days - this is what I mentioned above. I expect it might be a weak low..But still need to pay attention to it - WHY? Because we never know. Case in point is the last low 2.5 week low at 4900. If I had paid more importance to it, I would have been able to make much more money extra in my trading. But didnt give much importance..so lost probably 30% of my profits as I posted earlier. OK..not an issue..Just wanted to give an example.
So bottomline - 5 week low in Oct 1st(plus or minus few days) and then 10 week, 20 week, 40, 80week, 4.5yr and 9yrs NEST of LOWS in November 1st to mid timeframe. Hope I am clear.
Sachin, I hope to post something soon about Hurst material.
Others, my market outlook is very clear...same as I am posting above here..You may read thru again and again to understand what I am saying.
Best,
Lee
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