Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Are we there yet?

I think so. If not, then close. Sorry I couldnt give an update yesterday..somehow got pretty busy :)

So yesterday..no denying it..Was very strong. Almost unbelievably strong. BUT now we are bang into the resistance or supply zone. I will be watching very interestingly over the next few days to see how the market reacts here. I think this is a very critical juncture here. Be very clear about this - I have been saying for a while we can get into the 5150-5180 zone and thats what we did yesterday. Honestly I did not expect this to happen yesterday but thats what happened. I had been saying for a while I will trade my shorts intraday to reduce cost and thats pretty much what I did yesterday - not an ideal situation but need to work with what we have.

So now we are in the topping range. As long as we do not get a strong close above 5200-5220, I will remain bearish and continue to trade like that. However a close above this and holding above this, we will have to admit something else is going on. But lets see. I think next few days should give us a concrete resolution.

I know its tough at times like this to hold the fort and trade believing in yourself. But need to do that. I know it was tough for me. But after a lot of study today, I see nothing to change my plans or ideas or market outlook. Still believe we are topping working for the next move down. But close above 5220, I will have to admit I am wrong. We shall see.

If you are not comfortable trading, my advice is - sit out for the next 2 months or so till November mid when we will be buying into some good stocks. This is safe to say the truth considering all the unknowns out there. But if you are into trading, then I would say these are one of the best times to be trading intraday and for a few days purely hit and run irrespective of whether long or short.

OK a look at a chart. I am not posting the Hurst charts because nothing has changed from last time. I.E topping for this current 2.5, 5 and 10 week cycle before the next move into first the 5 week bottom expected b/w Sep end and Oct 5th or so. And then a bounce before the final move into November 1st week. Rough guidelines for now..But we will refine.

Chart -



Ok I posted this a little while back mentioning its a probable fractal for the market. Looking at it right now, it has done exactly as projected - so likely we are closer to a top than ever. You can compare each move within the circles to verify whether what I am saying is correct. We shall see what the market says though!

Best,
Lee

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