Read all the comments...Just wanted to say some stuff..which I also posted in the comments section of previous post -
Everyone..really...No defeat and all...I will come back with more analysis..And will come back stronger...
Why did I say I am taking a break?
Just regrouping..rethinking..evaluating what went wrong and so on..
When a big loser happens, we need to do that, else emotional trades will happen.
For the record -
My last short trade - From 2600 odd till 2800 I shorted...My AVG price was around 2720...I had several signals to cut and run in between which I ignored...This was my first mistake. Adding a lot to a losing position was the second...
However breakout above 2840 was my last point as I must have mentioned several times in previous posts..Market gapped up above and never looked back...
To be totally clear...From 2720 to 2860 around 140 pts loss...If you take all the earlier gains, this is not so BAD....BUT thats a traders folly and false justification..For me this was the biggest loser trade so far..So I needed to step back and see what went wrong..For me it was more of mindset that anything else...I need to clear that and come back fresh..
I will do so soon.
Best and Thanks to everyone for their comments..I know a lot of bears lost money...You can see how much I lost above...
Dont worry too much..Its all part and parcel of the game.
I WILL BE BACK LATER WITH MY CHARTS AND MORE ON OUTLOOK.
I am trying some new stuff..i.e using the 20period swing system on different timescales to see which one is better. I might post some trial entries later today with this..The only thing confusing me for now is which timeframe to use...1hour or 30 min swing...Trying to evaluate which is better.
Regd outlook - This rally has gone too far..We should get some kind of pullback and consolidation after which we will make an attempt to take out the highs...So it looks like we have to put bearishness on the back burner and try to trade on the longer side and buy dips...
But this will come later...I dont think the pullback is done yet..I will use the swing indicators to show where to go long or where to go short.
More later.
Best.
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13 comments:
Nice to read this msg. Please cheerup come up with bang..
Regards
sir i m confident that you will come with something much better.Every person should learn from mistakes after all we are human being.
I made a bigger mistake and i was short from 2600 levels and yesterday finally I lost my capital of 100000 and decided to regroup like you ....i have taken one lesson of stop loss ...as i had mostly april shorts i kept waiting and it got too late...but i promise slowly I need to get back what i lost...So cheeer up and the markets are supreme ..analysis is fine i realise but trends are more important...lets just get back our losses
Hi..
My grandfather used to speculate in betel nuts by buying these in bags when the prices are cheap and selling them when prices soar. Whenever, the prices go a certain amount below his purchase price, he would simply go & sell it off.He never had charts & oscillators to guide him but a simple money management principle. He knew he will come back and make money on his next trade.
And his life was quite simple and this activity never took up more than few hours of his time and he went about his life taking care of the family and contributing to the society. His trades never affected him. He was quite non-attached in his business activities.
I always remember about him when ever I get tangled up in some messy trades or impulsive actions and that in turn bring about some sanity & clarity to my thoughts.
Most often, we make errors in our actions simply because we don't believe in ourselves sufficiently. One of the reasons could be our ability to sense the market is so good, it feels so easy....and we find it difficult to accept something so easy..
We call it "Our own intelligence becoming our biggest enemy".
I am hoping to see "Lee's observations" sooner as market tests everyone at critical junctures and inputs from every experienced hand is quite useful..
Best regards.
ilango
Hey Ilango..You dont know how much ur comments mean to me..Thank you for that...
Others also..Thanks from bottom of my heart...
Ilango, you and SS and 2 of the ppl I can remember who had some idea about this upmove panning out..So definitely kudos are in order :)
Best.
Hi Lee, According to me, KPL 's 20 day Swing in 60 min charts is best setup. I have also send u the chart in ur e-mail. One more thing in the chart u will find that from 29/01/09 to 09/02/09 some false signal are there, we can avoid this with the help of ADX. If ADX(14)in 60 min chart is below 10 that means it is a trend less market. It is just an idea. If I'm wrong kindly ignore me.
Regards,
Deepak
Hey D, what is ADX saying now? Unfortunately I dont have much experience with ADX...Maybe you can help me with that :)
Best.
I have been following your blog for a while now...Anyways, I think its not the charts that tricked us this time around.
Our market was bound (technically) to test the lows first and then give a rally..anyhow, the US market news flows tumbled the table.
It is good to analyze your techniques, as market is dynamic and changes its course after sometime(there's no fixed interval, though (20 interval swing)).
Losing trades should be used to improvise and not to dump certain strategy that has been working and giving profits in past.
I am not discouraging you to try out new things..Its just that you ll make your thinking pattern complex. Keep things simple and intact!!
Hopefully, you ll recollect yourself and comeback good.
Regards
Yogesh Tiwari
Hi Lee, ADX(14) in 60 min chart is declining. It was at 74 on 24/03/09 now it is at 29. It means strength of the trend is declining and it is a consolidation. If it goes below 10 in future I will not trade until unless it goes above 10. It is not a good idea to trade in trend less market, but up to 10 it is safe in 60 min chart.
ADX interpretations
1) ADX less than 10 is interpreted as a weak trend or consolidation. Indication the use of oscillators.
2) ADX rising from 15 to 25 from lower levels means the trend is strengthening Use trend following systems.
3) ADX above 30 is interpreted as a strong trend. Use Trend following system.
4) ADX at an extremely high level of 50 or above is interpreted as a market in a strong trend with a consolidation expected anytime. Start booking profits if the ADX makes a top or flattens out.
5) ADX declining below 30 is interpreted as a consolidation after a trending move. Use oscillators
Hey D, Thanks..Very useful info..
Best.
I think we need to seriously work on the modification of swing indicator. That is the best we can do. As per my experience it is any day better to trade by a system then on the basis of TA. My favorite saying is "Technical analysis is only for educational purpose only, you should trade only on the basis of some system or the other". Even if your system is not one of the best but it will give you money without a worry or else somebody is addicted to a rush of adernalin then trade as per the TA, which by the way operators know better then us and also know how shallow our pockets are.
keep posting your discoveries of the swing indicator.
Rajeev
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