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12:00 NOON UPDATE: Could this be a flag? If so, breakout above will make market run up quick. Not sure for now..But if it does, its good for an intraday trade.
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Okay guys...You saw I shorted a bit yesterday...I added some more today...And I hedged this with 3000 April calls. I am not sure at this juncture what we are going to do next...I see at minimum a pullback and then a move higher...It is actually too late to go long which is why I am not doing this...
For the bullish case, we need to have some sort of pullback here..else I am sorry to say, we are going into bubble mode and we will have a fast crash-like move...I am not raving bearish anymore..more like neutral..so remember my positions reflect that...
I mentioned earlier that I am looking more at swing signals(thanks to kpl) for trading signals going forward..So that I keep out of trouble going forward.
See the 20hr swing below.
Coming to sentiment...Its turned very bullish now..I would be cautious on longs..If we get a decent pullback I shall look to go long..Ofcourse will reevaluate at that point...Frankly this is a very confusing juncture..tough trading.
EW structures...I have some interesting ideas..One bullish(the obvious one) and the bearish one...Now since the obvious is more often incorrect, I would be cautious. I am thinking STILL along the bearish lines...For those familiar with the EW lingo, I think its a bearish wave4 flat or a wave4 triangle still..with w5 down still to come..However we need to respect momentum here and wait for some confirmation on downside...tough to say right now...But I will post these scenarios with charts later..maybe tomorrow....If anyone else has thoughts on this, please comment.
Intraday setups - I dont have anything at the moment but I shall post if I do see something interesting...note that these setups and patterns dont come often but when they do, we can bank some good coin and low risk.
Best.
9 comments:
good to c u back...with dow fut strongly up maybe we will push even more higher..vix is also under 30 ...after a long time i think....3250 nifty looks on..
respected lee,
Though the tide is still in favour of bulls ....but i can see the reverse trend coming soooner than later.........with MF Houses goin gung ho over showing their high NAV'S in the end of this financial year they have highly inflated the markets than what can be possibly digested......another factor is the upcoming budget...i dont thing that the goin UPA will crack fireworks....though it can offer candies to woo voters ...but still feel the market will take it as discounting signal....the third factor is the financial results which will be declared from next months and their is nothing too cheery about it.......fundamentally everything is pointing towards low......though i knw its vice versa technically.........many people think this rally was also a planned gesture by politicos to raise funds for campaign......nd i dont feel it can be neglected either................plz tell me wht u think both technically and fundamentaaly as of now...............i have gone nearly bust doing positional trade in favour of shorts.........
Hi,
What is this blue line in both the charts? Apologies for the ignorance :)
Pm, blue line is the swing indicator I was referring to in earlier posts.I just assumed everyone knew..
read this link here to know more..its a very nice tool and you can use it in whichever timeframe you want..
http://vfmdirect.com/kplswing/
I like the hourly and daily for trading purpose..the daily has been giving whipsaws lately..
Shaq, 3250? doubtful on this run I think? Maybe a pullback first? donno..trading as it comes..I know risk is there..thats why i am back to hedged trading after stopping that business for a while.
riteshanan, this quarter dressing is somthing i have also been thinking about..and i think there is something going on there..but dont try to think too much on that...
when trading positional, its always nice to have hedges when in uncertain situations...
Those with shorts are screwed. <-- me! Lets hope the market swings back sooner rather than later.
Yoda, if you are still short, hang in there..I see some interesting developments and I like them from a bearish viewpoint..
And the other thing is the blogosphere and media and swallowed the BULL Koolaid..Maybe it is a new bull market..
But I see this ending very badly.
Best.
Lee ,
I would have shorted at 3200 or at least 3150
I also have doubt about 3250
As I said 3150-3200 is OK
MF ppl are buying like anything
Today's Good Example is Aban
3/4 Days back I had News about Aban
When it was touching upper BB for 3/4 days
IT SEEMS NTPC Blast is in Q
Any one knows about sharp Diversion of ROC(45) Against price ?
IS this " 3 WHITE SOLDIERS " stage
on BSE chart on 26/03/2009 ?
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