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Sunday, January 18, 2009

Trades and the Week that passed - Post Mortem

I promised a post looking into the week that just passed us by and the trades that I did..What went right and what went wrong...

First the trade - Going into the week, I was short...From approx 2920 area and covered almost perfectly at the 2700 area. Watched for a bit and went long - It was almost a near to perfect entry and sure the market went on to rally 130 points from there...But still the trade turned out to be a dud. Why? Because the trade was over hedged. 

Now dont get me wrong..I had an inkling this might happen but still I allowed myself to be over hedged...Why? Because I was scared to take the long - And so in the end what COULD have been a nice short term trade bombed. I realized my mistake early in the day on Friday and wanted to get out...I tried to time it so that I could minimize the loss and VOILA market throws me a curveball..All minor corrections started running upward :D And to add insult to injury, my stupid trading platform went down...haha...all in all a frustrating trading day...Not really because the trades went wrong but because it was my own mentality that caused it...And ofcourse Murphys Law came true for me then...What CAN go WRONG...WILL go WRONG :)

All in all...I learnt some lessons...

- First thing...Never overhedge...If not confident, dont take the trade. Better setups will come.
- For a short term scalp, its better to keep the hedges very small.
- Watch the IV closely when taking the hedge. Also the discount vs. premium on the futures. Overall 3 reasons played against me...Overall it resulted in a bad trade. But still just small loss.
- Heavy hedges come into play only if its a trade lasting 2-3 weeks where the power to roll over to a higher strike comes into play. Its tricky figuring this out but well as I said before, I am also learning this...So bear with me!

Now, next, why did I cover at 2706 and go long. First, this area was tested 2 times and held, so it looked to me like a good place to get long....Second, daily and hourly was terribly oversold...So some sort of bounce was expected. Third, fade the gap...Its a profitable strategy more than often. Last and not least my any means, Sentiment...I could see on message boards, CNBS(cn bc is the correct term...cnbs coz its just bs(bullsh*t)) that everyone had turned bearish...Operators love turning these kind of situations into SCORCHES(=short covering rally). Simply said, odds were in favour of a good rally.

Now looking at the comment I got from Prashant in the earlier post...Where he really hit the nail on the head and my comment after that -

Anonymous Prashanth said...

Consider the following,

Your Delta (for Hedge) was 1.10 (which means you over-hedged)

IV was around 57 at time of initiation which dropped down yesterday.

Yesterday, we also saw discount btw Futures and Spot getting reduced.

I feel that for extreme short term, market is still up. If you had held onto position, loss may have been minimized since your Delta for hedge was not 0.70 and a 50 move on Nifty may have given you break-even or small profit.

TI :)

January 16, 2009 7:36 PM

Blogger Lee said...

Hey Prashanth...

You are 100% correct!(Almost 3 different reasons played against me at the same time..I saw it happening realtime and just wanted to cut and run on my trades)...I realized this early yesterday even though I did not quantify it as you have over here...And in an effort to correct the mistake, I made some other small mistakes and probably worsened the situation(but small mistakes and so small fees - we gotta pay our dues to MISS MARKET lol)..but again I am not too worried about that...maybe 2 yrs back I would have been very upset...but in the effort to become more professional, I have tried to distance myself from the trades...hmmnn..donno if thats good or bad you would know more about that! :)

Okay, I do intend to do some post mortem of the markets and mainly my trades over weekend...but in meantime if you have some links I can maybe read on the hedging dilemma(to HEDGE or NOT to HEDGE?) and Deltas, I would really appreciate it..I do know the idea and basic concept from my trading and experience..but I do not know the theory if you know what I mean...

Thanks Prashanth for you comments and time..I appreciate it.

Others also, I would appreciate it if you can offer comments on similar situations you might have faced..or any thoughts at all...

More thoughts and debates tomorrow.

Cheers and have a good weekend all!

So there you have it..For those who dont know...Prashant is a very astute and clear headed trader/analyst from the Technical Investor Yahoo group...

Next post will be for the coming week and my trade plan.

Cheers All

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