For the last 10 days or so I had a poll posted up here trying to get sentiment for the month of May...Thanks to all who voted. I expected much higher participation since the daily traffic to this site is on average 150 unique people. Please do vote in future polls - This can create a significant tool for us - And I will put up interpretations on this and as we go forward we will be able to utilize this data more in determining market sentiment and direction.
Now coming to the poll I had put up for the month of May.
38% was bullish
58% was bearish
3% was neutral
I guess the sample size is way too small to make any such conclusions on this.
But I think above shows that majority is bearish as that is why the market is not going down too much...In other words, it looks like market is very light in terms of speculative positions and this kinda makes it less prone to sudden crashes or declines...Now one thing to not here is that as time was going by, the bullishness kept increasing and this was the major drawback of the poll. I need to close the poll much quicker and maybe reduce the time period.
This has got significant value in trying to get a handle on market sentiment and when used with context it becomes an invaluable tool. For example, after the big decline in Jan, if we had checked sentiment I would not be surprised to see 90% bearish. And this will be very bullish. Over time we can get a better handle on this.
So please vote. From this week on I will open weekly polls - Each Friday market close it will open, On Monday before market opens I will close it and post interpretation on the same.
And we can compare with market moves and see how it works. This thing will take time but I think it can be a good tool.