Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

2012

Been a while since my last update. Had a good time off from the markets.

Now several things here when I look at the conventional charts and also the Hurst charts. No low has really been confirmed yet. Even after this much rally. You would remember earlier I was looking for a low somewhere in Nov timeframe - the 80 week low - and then a good rally from there. Now even though we got some rally, I am not sure if this was the real long lasting low. I mean to say I expect more downside this year. I dont think it will be easy to trade this because of the sharp rallies in between.

Bottom line for me is that my weekly mechanical system remains on sell and will until we take out 5400 conclusively on the upside. This will come down to 5200 in March timeframe. So if we manage to go above 5200 in March, a new bull market will be confirmed as per my standards.

I know its big points and long timeframe but I am shifting my trading to this kind of timeframe for now esp because I dont have the time for shorter term trading right now and esp for this reason I will not update my blog as frequently going forward. Weekly signals are what I will be trading going ahead. And from a Hurst perspective, when I get a more reliable view, I will post the same. Right now Hurst is a big mess and like any system it has its good and bad times. Right now, until a good low is confirmed, I will not trust it. And this new 80 week cycle seems to be a bear cycle which is why I expect 2012 will also be a bear year atleast until mid year. Well the market has to disprove this by trading above 5400 in next 3-4 weeks or 5200 in next 10 weeks.

Short term I dont have much guidance to offer except that we seem to be getting into topping range right now and not much more upside is left near term. I think there are many other blogs out there like Kumar Sir's or Ilango's which give much better short term guidance..:) No need to rely on me. I will post from time to time..Maybe a weekly or even bi-weekly update going ahead. Lot of extra responsibilities have come up for me workwise during the past few months - So I really think this is the way to go for now.

Trade Safe.

Best,
Lee

6 comments:

Nandi said...

Dear Lee,
DO COME BACK. Except for a small dip you were correct when you started accumulating stocks. See the surge of Nifty and stocks today.

Please start your comments again.

Regards

Bala~

Sachin said...

Lee,

I think we already formed that 80 Week low at 4530 that you were talking about. But the way market keeps moving up with no rest.. puts it into a dangerous position and i am assuming one dip of about 50% of the entire 800 Point move to take place soon maybe this month or next.. that would be the best time again to accumulate some stocks.. although i think on a larget cycle.. we are yet to get out of woods till 2014.. the 18 year cycle..i mean.

please keep posting your updates so that i keep learning from you.

Thanks

SJkolkata said...

Dear Lee,
I have following your blog for quiet some time. You have been totally correct in your readings, except that your timing was a bit early. That should not disturb a person like you.

Missing on ur write-ups. Please do COME BACK.
Regards,

Lee said...

Hey Guys...

Sorry about no updates..like I said before, I got some extra responsibilities in my jobs..more work..more account management..no time for updates or to trade..All I am doing is building a long term portfolio as my weekly signal went to buy. I think good dips should be used to accumulate stocks. 10 week low is expected sometime in next few days. Then some more upside..Then 20 week low expected sometime in May end. Thats my read for now. Hope I will be able to do a more detailed update soon.

Best,
Lee

Nandi said...

Dear Lee,
Thanks for your response. Please post your stock picks so that we can also follow.

Regards

Bala~

Nandi said...

Dear Lee,
Wish you and your family a Very Happy Vishu. Went to Guruvayur yesterday. Hence 24 hours delay.