I can only view this current market action as a topping process. Nothing else. As I have been saying for a while 5200-5250 is rock solid. Can we do a little more than that? Yes possible. Probably around 5300 and above is when we need to reverse to fully bullish. Till then sell the rallies is the mantra for now.
I did enter some shorts yesterday. I will add today and continue to add as long as market remains below 5250. One thing I will say - The way I operate is I keep my initial positions very very low. And add as the situation arises - this may be break of certain pivot levels or it may be on rallies toward certain point on negative divergences. Setting a position is not easy and almost is never popular - because we are always going against the grain. I mean to say a short term trend follower thinks everything is quite bullish now. But a longer term guy says this is just a bounce in the downtrend. So a conflict arises. It ALWAYS about timeframe. As a trader we always need to decide what is our timeframe. Different people are comfortable is different timeframes. Has to do with your frequency and timeframe. Find that out and you will be so much more in sync with your trading.
So many people emailed me around learning Hurst methodology. What I will do is over next few weeks is probably present some material around that because I know its very expensive to learn this by yourself. What I will suggest is going back and looking at some of my earlier posts first..I mean to say there is one called 'backup from VFM' sometime this year probably couple of months back. Start from there and few posts after that. Then from next few weeks I will post more around learning and understanding this. Please understand this is not a simple thing for me to do. So it will take some time. But I will still do it.
Trade safe. Keep emotions out. Run your trading like a business.
Best,
Lee
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1 comment:
Dear Lee,
Considering that Nifty is STILL above the week pivot(4970), do you think there is a possibility that Nifty might meet R2 of the week (as said earlier), i.e 5229 in the coming week? Would it be wise to buy around 5000 levels if there be further downside of about 50-70 points?
AND SECONDLY, when do you think the downside cycles start again? You had earlier mentioned in your blog that we 'might' see 4000 some where in november... considering that, do you feel the 'corrective bounce' ends at 5177, w/o fillinf the gap and meeting 5229?
I have been following your blog and Ilango Sir's blog and the views that both of you present to us are excellent!
Actually the reason WHY I am asking you specific questions is because despite both of you use different methods of analysis, the outcome is similar and very accurate!
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