Minor Squeeze might be ON - Is the 2.5 week low in?

So market took support at around the 4900-4920 area I mentioned yesterday in the final comments and bounced from there. Today this should continue for atleast a little bit in an effort to squeeze out some of the late shorts. Dont be fooled by this. Always remember the larger term trend is down and all longs should be hit and run affairs - Intraday longs only is best.

From a cycles perspective, it looks like the 2.5 week low came in early - this was always a possibility - one of the reasons I reduced on shorts yesterday/booked profits and also hedged the rest. I had mentioned this clearly in the comments and the edits section. With yesterday's trading day, we have run approximately 15 days in this cycle off of the 10 week low which also translates to 2.14 weeks - Close enough for government work. Lows can come early especially in very uncertain situations in the geopolitical front as we are seeing today.

5080 area on the upside - Might not even manage to get there - this is what we need to watch today and also next few days. I will be watching closely to see where I can reestablish the covered shorts. But initially I might cover some more at the open to re-add later. But not sure. I will update on the edits sections if I do anything. As of now almost double hedged and also covered more than 50% of the puts. Still have opportunity to reduce and re-add higher. We shall see how it turns out.

2.5 week, 5 week, 10 week - These are the cycles running right now in this 80 week cycle before we bottom in Oct end/Nov mid timeframe. The tops of all of these might have already come together last week at 5175 odd. But there is always the chance of the 5 week top coming in which could be a double top or a lower top at 5125 odd. Keep your thoughts and options open. If the market decides to rally from here, I expect it will still top out in few days which will be the 5 week top and we shall go down toward Sept end for the 5 week low. If we bottomed the 2.5 week cycle yesterday, calculate 2.5 weeks more to get the projected 5 week low - this gives approx Sept 27-29th timeframe for the 5 week low - You may calculate this for yourself and see how it works out. From here, you can also easily project the next 5 week cycle and so on - This is the basic tenet of the Hurst Method! So we are in the first 2.5 week cycle of this 10 week cycle. We will have 3 such 2.5 week cycles left. Calculate it and you will get approx Nov 2nd for the 10 week low, the 20 week low, the 40 week low and also the 80 week low. Also quite possibly the 4.5 year and 9 year lows - as I have explained before. If you want to understand this better, read and reread it again and ask questions if you need any clarifications.

EW wise, if the corrective is still running and what we saw recently was just the 'b' of the C wave, then more upside is pending toward maybe a double top kind of situation. Its quite possible and so we need to be open toward it. The preferred count is ofcourse that we have completed some sort of motive move down and we are now correcting it. So more hard down should come after a small corrective rally - This is obviously what I prefer bounces or not.

But whatever happens with short term bounces, the medium term mantra should be to short the rallies because downside pressure will be there until the Nov low which is expected by Hurst methodology. In between this we will have some intermediate lows as I have outlined above.

EDITS:

1. Added back some shorts here...I had covered a few lots at the lows of the morning and the rest what I had covered yesterday. Also rolled up hedges from 5000 calls to 5100 calls. Moving to more of a bearish allocation. Lets see..Can we get to 5025? 5050? Looks quite weak for now.

Best,
Lee