Well what can I say..expiry really does suck and throws us off our game. I wanted to do a more detailed post yesterday before market opened but could not due to other committments. Anyhow like I posted yesterday at around market open, I kept on adding shorts throughout the day. And got an average price of around 4995. So not bad for a days work. Also got into Oct 4900 Puts. Overall size is not as great as I would have liked - around 75% short. I could have gotten more in but wanted to wait and watch a little.
Coming to expiry. All my observations were correct but this is what expiry does. Option players are the big guys..In the end, market will end up where they want it to be. When we started taking off above 4940, I started covering as I outlined in earlier post until I had just a little left..So I closed that also..Overall got out around 4950-60. So all in all not a bad thing since got to reshort again higher.
There were several important signs on expiry day.
One is the rupee still went weaker.
FIIs still sold.
Advance decline numbers were poor - showing that just few stocks pushed up.
And still market went up.
These were all signs that Friday would be weak. I wanted to outline all these before market open but didnt get time. Still thought I would mention now.
And really above were the reasons I shorted back into the market in the 5000 range. All in all a decent week. We shall review some charts and setups over the weekend.
Have a good weekend!
Best,
Lee
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4 comments:
4650 still on Lee? Likely time frame? I mean the pause did come this week...
Hi Lee,
Expiry day straddle is the way to go if you want to take the risk. Also 5012 was 61.8 retracement. Else, your theory of shorting is the way to go. Based on EW, I feel long term, next year we will make further lows ( 2500-3000 is possible ). See my blog CLICK HERE
Keep up the good work.
Bharat, lets see. Like I said the 5 week low around Oct10-14th is one to watch. Price value? Well let the date come..Next 2 weeks could be wild.
GD, count is quite plausible. However too far out for me to think about at this point. I would keep the timeframe lower. I will post some longer term thoughts a little later..I mean as we get closer to the 80 week low.
Best,
Lee
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