Hurst Cycles Trading Software - Accurately Forecast Nifty and Stock Cycles

Sunday, August 31, 2008

Morph Point

Well from my previous post, you would have seen my state of i love that monkey...well it captures well the state of mind of traders..not only in our markets but day we go up, the other day we go down...confusing the hell out of everyone...well you would have got by now that I am confused..we are at a wave morph point...I will show one chart which was my earlier preferred scenario...and a 2nd chart after that which shows the other possibility which is also becoming strong day by day...the more bullish scenario...

First possibility...what i was looking at for all these past days...

2nd one...this one is gaining credence every day we go by..and we need to pay attention to this one here...being completely bearish is dangerous..

Hope you read my comments on the chart...I think we are in a strong 'morph' scenario..we need to give importance to both cases here..As you know I am short still from 4400..I am thinking I will cover today on initial weakness and maybe go long in small dont get me wrong..I am still bearish..but see some upside in short term...
Comment welcome please...Good or Bad...


Ilango said...

I liked the "Bull-Bear Line" with supporting pointers to emphasis the importance of it.

I think there is good clarity for an EW..Two possibilities but within that the direction remains the same and as & when the critical levels get broken (Whichever side that may be), one should trade strongly in that direction.

A very timely chart with alternative views.

Lee said...

thanks ilango...i appreciate your thoughts as always...

best to you..!


abhay r somkuwar said...

hi lee,
yes these are the two options.

lets mark invalidation points for both, let market play it out itself then we play ourselves :) i.e coming down below 4200 or better 4159 invalidates 2nd option of B irregular flat, similarly going above 4472 invalidates option 1 of C running, till then we just relax taking it as a rangebound market.

broader picture we do know bigger B has max tgt upto 4723 and it has already completed its min requirement of 38.2% ret already earlier. that means crossing 4473 takes it to 4650-4723 where flat tgt also completes.

abhay r somkuwar.

vpbrangarajan said...

Dear Lee,
I liked your bull bear line.

I think we might even try and test higher levels.

My logic is not so much from EWT. its on what i feel on oil correction boosting stocks and oil rise butchering the market.

Also NSG and 08 sep should be bullish events .

Your bull bear line projected across the time gives a 3500 nifty?

I have stacked up lots of calls on nifty sep and just a few in oct.

Oct also sees a cyclical down.
nice work keep it up.

thanks for reference to esnips in one of your messages. That place is a treasure den for books.
Happy investing and trading
VPB Ranga Rajan

Lee said...

Thanks Guys for your thoughts..

Ranga sir, thank you for visiting and commenting..

Do you have a good idea on cycles?...if so, I would like to hear area I dont have much idea on..

btw, i am also an electronics engineer and have studied some fourier and signals..dont remember much though :)

I am also looking for an imp top to form in next 1-2 months after which we should be down into Dec beginning...then up again till March and final low in June of 2009..all speculation only..but lets see how it turns out ;)