Tough Call

Once again I feel we are at some sort of crossroads here in the market. Today we have to hold 5200-5160 area. Else the trapdoor to lower lows might open up again. My idea of shorting in the 5350-5400 area was correct but I also covered too early I guess when I did yesterday. There are some quite bearish possibilities opening up here atleast for the next 1 month. I think we need to be very careful here over the next 2-3 weeks. Remember I was looking for the next low in the next week but it can extend a bit being a major low. So its time to be careful I think.

So I am wondering what to do today. I do have some long cash positions as I have been mentioning for a while. But today I am again wondering whether it makes sense to close most of them and again rebuy again in a couple of weeks. Its a tough call. I would say if you dont have any positions, better to just sit out the next 2-3 weeks and then buy in size. Break of 5160 opens up 5050. And break of that opens up 4800 and maybe even new lows. But we might bounce about a little today and tomorrow before the market makes a decision on what to do next. Lets go point to point without any preset notions. On upside market needs to break above 5450-5500 to go higher. Maybe much higher.

I am sorry I am not able to make much of a directional call here but market has once again thrown us a curve ball and so need to do our best to navigate it.

Bottom line is I will be taking a very defensive position here for the next few days until more clarity emerges. And we should get this over the next few days.

Comments are welcome. Remember always - I am also just like you guys trying to navigate the market.

Best,
Lee

Bottom Line

Likely the 80 week low has already been seen price wise. This was on Oct 4th. So the next 5 week low is expected to come in around this week Friday or next week Monday/Tuesday. So shorts should not be taken beyond that and buys are going to be more profitable...Buying the dips that is. Shorts taken yesterday can be covered today and retaken at higher levels or managed with some sort of trailing stoploss. But I still think the big money is to be made on the long side buying the dips into the next 5 week low.

Charts posted yesterday are still valid.

Best,
Lee

Week Ahead - 31/10/2011

Updates for the week ahead. I have included most of my comments in the charts itself but increased the font size so should not be a problem to read now - right click and open in a new window to see the charts. Let me know still if anyone has a problem reading and I will move all my comments to the text section only.

Bottom line is the nominal lows of this 80 week cycle might have already be seen and we are in an uptrend. However we are close to resistance at 5450-5500 so expect a pullback and consolidation for next few days/week. Infact if you remember, this was one of my preferred scenarios - break out above 5200 and then retest it from above. But several possibilities are there.

See the charts and study them. I have tried to analyse various timeframes and possibilities here. I have included a GOLD chart also. Also the final picture is the portfolio update. I think I will move this to be a bi-monthly update from now on - being a cash portfolio will take time to grow. Posting weekly does not make much sense.

Nifty Normal View - Daily



Nifty Weekly View - Weekly



Nifty Hurst View



Nifty Hurst View - Expert Model



Gold Hurst View



Cash Portfolio Update



Link to Sentient Trader Software

Comments are welcome.

EDITS: 10:07AM - In case you guys are wondering whats going on, there is a major currency intervention going on in the Japanese markets. This is what is causing the turbulence in the markets..Yeah its a reason..but we are going for the cycle lows soon looks like..A higher low as I have been saying..So I have been slowly building into shorts here in futures. Cash positions remain as is. The last time they intervened in Forex was Aug 4th. You all know what happened Aug 4th, 5th and after that also. Play cautiously

Best,
Lee

Update for 28th of October

Will Update a little bit late..probably 15-20 mins late.

EDIT: WILL UPDATE TOMORROW. NOT MUCH OF UPDATE TODAY. UPSIDE CONTINUES.

Thanks,
Lee

Wishing everybody a very Happy and Prosperous Diwali

First of all wish everybody a very Happy and Prosperous Diwali!

So looks like this confused bull is maybe slightly vindicated right now with the markets above 5200. So the next thing to see is can we get into the lower 5300 range and then consolidate above 5200 - this is what I will be watching out for. Let us see.

I got up today early morning for this special session. I have few NF longs from the 5050 area which I will be covering today. Its a pretty good profit to take today. Still holding the cash portfolio - To tell the truth its not performing as well as I would have liked but then need to give it more time in the larger scale cycles..We shall wait and see. I am churning it around..cutting down the losers and adding to winners..will be doing this for some more time. Market needs to gain more momentum and confidence. It might only happen after the next 5 week low(and higher scale possibly) expected in the 1st week of Nov. I will post a more detailed view with charts tomorrow.

Happy Trading!

Edit: 5pm: Covered NF after some time after the open and now bought back some. Frankly speaking, not seeing much bearishness. Maybe because its today :) still the Nov 1st week cycle low is looming in there..need to be watchful.I would really love to see some consolidation around here building a base and then moving higher. Anyhow, we will see in coming days how it all works out.

5:10pm - Out again..Thats it for today.

5:20pm - One more add..Buying few 5200 puts now. Not sure if this is a wise move with a lot of big news coming tomorrow but this is in part to protect my cash positions and also because of the upcoming cycle low in Nov 1st week. We shall see.


Best,
Lee

5160-5200

This obviously remains the BIG barrier right now for market upsides. This needs to be cleared before we can say all clear for higher prices. I earlier thought market might clear it an then retest it from above. But does not look like it at this point. So we might consolidate and move lower here for a few days to set the 5 week low before we can rally higher.

Of course today is a big news day so anything can happen. And together with that expiry. So could be quite a day. I still have some future longs from 5050 area. I think I will close them today to be on safer side and wait and watch. Cash side I have already spoken about before. I will be doing some rebalancing today - removing some underperformers and freeing up some funds for later.

Charts are still relevant from yesterday. And I will post some more thoughts later on the market cycles. Dont miss the comments section from last post.

Best,
Lee

Week Ahead - 24/10/2011

PS: I changed my profile picture to a 'confused bull' LOL :D



Maybe now the market can go down in earnest!

EDIT: 10:05AM: Looks like my comments have been taken in wrong sense. It was part in joke. See my confused bull comments and picture were just to put forward a humorous view on my mentality right now. I am bullish dont get me wrong. But I am still cautious till Nov 1st week end. After that I think we wont see a lower low so buying is the way to go. So Today I had lot of NF longs from Friday.I covered some today...and still holding the rest FWIW for higher prices..But if I think it wont go higher from here, I will be quick to cover..will post updates.

Best,
Lee

Oct 20th

So looking at the market action, I think maybe the 2.5 week low came in on Tuesday Oct 18th..Early..but still valid..And now we are in the bounce from there. And likely this will also top soon or has topped yesterday. From here we should have atleast a few down days into Oct end/Nov 4th. Lets see how it plays out.

Another thing I just wanted to show. See this below chart. This is a slightly modified model(expert model in the software) I am using. This one actually says the 80week low is already in. I dont like the 'look' of this due to various reasons..So not favoring it at the moment. But it is however a very good possibility considering the strength over past several days.



Lets see how far the next low comes - depending on that we can confirm. Remember shorter term this doesnt make any difference - 2.5, 5 week cycles are all operating fine.

I have been building into stocks whenever we have been having big bad down days..Its been going good so far. Around 30% into cash stocks right now. Rest I will be building in whenever we get big down days.

I am including a snapshot of what I hold right now..Entry price and current price along with current profit percentage. For obvious reasons I am not including quantity/size here. But I am 30% invested now - will add more on declines. The way I operate is very simple - I will monitor this basket every few days and whatever is outperforming on looks good on the charts - I will add more to them. Whatever looks bad, I will either give it a few more days or cut the position. I will post this snapshot every week maybe Friday going forward. This is to monitor a pure cash portfolio performance using Hurst cycles.



EDITS:
11 AM: Should have updated before..Todays move kind of shows the downpressure. Unless we take some support around here, we will go down to test 4950-4920 range again. I have been adding shorts from 5090 NF since the morning. Looking good so far. Regd the stocks portfolio, like I said, days like these are an opportunity to cherry pick. The key is not to get over excited and do everything in one day. We have till Nov 1st week.

11:45AM: May be overdone for today. Exiting shorts at 5040 and going flat. GN!



Best,
Lee

2.5 week low is close...

3 charts posted below. Most of my comments are in there. 2.5 week low seems to be coming in...Maybe today or by tomorrow..From where we should have another bounce before declining into our expected nest of lows toward Oct end-Nov4th timeframe.









If you missed it, check out my last post where I have explained how the Hurst software works. And also given more details on its benefits. Also check the comments section.

LINK TO SENTIENT TRADER

Best,
Lee

Some thoughts..

Charts are there in previous posts. Still relevant for today. Just thought I would add some words to it for today :)

Looks like the 2.5 and probably the 5 week cycles have topped and we are now moving toward the 2.5week low expected this Friday(+or-1day). From there we are likely to have a bounce which can be again reshorted for a downmove into the 80week cycle nest of lows expected in Nov 1st week.

Now there has been a lot of good debate on the extent of the next downmove - some of this can be read in the earlier post comments. We are clear about the direction but its the magnitude that is doubtful at this point to me. Why? Because the upmove we saw from the last 5 week low was pretty awesome. And its not something one might expect from the last 5 week low in this 80 week cycle. So for this reason, the downmove also might not be as big as was initially expected. Now remember this is all speculation - we are sure of direction..so let us play that for now. Let the market go where it wants to go - we will profit from it as we know the time cycles.

Now why do I think this downmove wont be as big as initially expected? Market Internals are the major reason. Sunil over at TIMAMO has given some good studies on it. This is just one thing. Breadth is important - its like looking under the hood at a car's engine - on the surface things can look great or ugly..its only when you lift up the hood and look at the internals that you begin to see things that werent very obvious before. Sunil does some pretty good studies on this.
Apart from this, I track internals of the US market very closely..Better tools are available for this. And things are slowly becoming bullish.

All these reasons are telling me we might get at best a higher low. And for this reason, I do not think we will break 4700 this year. But I still reserve the right to change my views at any point :) I have been wrong many many times before! :D

But remember as I said above - Trading has got nothing to do with these so called forecasts. We trade for money and NOT to be RIGHT - Want to stress this point.

Many times I end up being wrong - but still manage to make some money out out it. As traders this should be our aim. Ego can be costly to any trader.

Now coming to cycles - I have some ideas as to why we might be turning bullish earlier than expected - Its because of sectors. Meaning there are many sectors out there..Oil and Gas, IT, FMCG etc..some of these sectors might have already bottomed out with their 80 week cycles..And so they might be lending upward pressure even though the broader 80 week lows have not yet come in. So...what I would say is be careful either way out there..The fag ends of cycles can be brutal if we have fixed mindsets - So I just say be flexible in your thoughts and positions.

Position Updates - I am short from yesterday open. Will try to cover at the 2.5 week low and reshort on a bounce into the 80 week low. This is the plan. I will also be looking to buy into good stocks for delivery as we go into the expected low. I am starting some pilot positions already just to track them. Let the market decide how far it wants to go in this downmove.

I hope with above post and explanation, my stand on this is a little bit more clear.
I dont really care how far down we might go.


=====================================================================================


Ok, so thats my thoughts on the market. Next, several folks asked me about the Hurst software that I use and they wanted to get some more idea around it. I am going to do a write up here..show some examples of how the S/W works. The trades it generates, projections etc.

The software is called Sentient Trader. I have given a link on the top of this page which will direct you to the home page of Sentient Trader.

About the S/W - It is a great package out there in the market today which sticks to Hurst Cyclic principles to generate cyclic projection both time and price based. So it will give you projections in time and for price as well. And you can use this to analyse any market out there provided you have the data for it. Overall the software package is pretty awesome. It is expensive but worth every cent. I was very skeptical before buying it but have to say was pleasantly surprised by how much it has improved my trading. And whatever it cost me, I easily made that back and more within few weeks. It aids me a lot in all of my trading decisions and views nowadays. Readers on this blog would have seen the calls I made over time and you can judge for yourselves. Sure there have been duds - but that what makes the market. Cannot expect to hit home runs all the time. But on balance the software is an excellent aid to any serious trader out there in the market - Any market. We as Indians are always stingy when it comes to buying software - I know - But believe me this is worth every single cent.

CLICK HERE FOR THE SENTIENT TRADER HOMEPAGE

A chart that shows better what the software does -
(see also the charts from previous post: I think they are very clear)



There are many many other features also in the package. FLD lines which generate price targets..VTLs which will show if a low has passed on not and so on..Too much for me to go into in one post..But I will try to in later posts.

Feel free to ask me questions. I will be happy to answer.

Bests,
Lee

Status Quo

Best,
Lee

Crucial Juncture

No other way to describe it. It is a crucial point right now for the bull/bear case. I am not talking about short term here but little bit longer term.

Earlier I was looking for the 80 week low to be a good low..I mean a serious long term low below 4700 maybe closer to 4000 which would give lot of confidence for going long for a longer period of time. However, past couple of weeks action has had me rethinking on this. Now this might just be a way of conditioning by the market where after the weak shorts are weeded out, we just continue the decline in earnest and break all previous supports and lows. Remember this is still a possible scenario. However seeing the strength so far..the strength in internals and so on..Its making me think..that we might not go below 4700 this year. Maybe not even close. I still expect some basing and downward moves till end of this month to set the 80 week low..But am thinking it JUST MIGHT be a HIGHER low. Now this is just speculation at this point. But I am getting ready my 'BUY LIST' of stocks. To buy after this 80 week low..or during it scaling in.

I know market is supreme..prices are king..this is the reason why I have to tone down my bearish expectations at this point. Frankly speaking, it would have just been much better for the market to go lower than 4000 now itself and make a long lasting low. But it looks like that is not meant to be and we might not get much better than 4700 to buy here. So bottom line is expect weakness till end of month but it might be nothing more than a consolidation before the next big move up.

If this is what the market decides to do..I do not think it will be a long lasting low but just a low for this current cycle and the REAL long term lows will only come sometime next year...Preferably after the March-April timeframe - that will be when the next 40 week cycle tops out...And then bottom toward June-July timeframe. So again bottom line is, we seem to be creating some type of bottom here with backing and filling and it will be a good enough bottom until March-April of next year when we might go back to BEAR MODE.

All speculation at this point of time. But I think this is what is happening. So time might be close to buy for a few months to take advantage of those gains. I am not talking about FNO here..But cash..I will post when I start buying but I already started looking for good stocks with potential..Still refining the list. I will post here when I am ready.

Chart -


I think whatever I said till now shows up in this chart. For now indecision and probably and consolidation kind of move lower until the overbrought situation is resolved after which we can move above 5235 and higher. Frankly I dont like it..I wish it worked out differently but the market is what it is..And fighting the market will quickly bankrupt us. Our aim should always be to get on right side of market. Now its indecisive but I think market will show its hand in next couple of weeks. Till then hit and run trades will be optimum. If you know how to trade intraday, do that..else do nothing at all..Covering the few shorts I have today will my aim..I might just change it to puts to reduce my risk..And also I am looking at longer term stock holds toward end of month - I mean buying into stuff. I will post on that when I do..with prices..so that we can track it in a spreadsheet. I used to do this for FNO but it became such a hassle that I stopped. I think I can do it for stocks..So I will be doing the same very soon.

Chart shows last 5 week low came in Oct 4th..so now in last 5 week cycle. So like I said its downward right now..But as of now it looks so far like its not a new bear move but a consolidation before another move upward. Now this is just speculation on my part..Market will show its hand soon. Need to see where this might stop...Important points are 5000 and 4900 areas. Breaking 5000, can get us to 4925 area quickly. Breaking 4900, will get us to 4800 area. More than this at this point I see as doubtful - looking at the strength shown by market so far. I know all this can change in one day..This is why I am waiting till end of October before making any longer term decision. Till then hit and run only. Protection of capital is supreme.

I know someone asked me about INFY cycles..I tried so much couldnt get clean data for it..so many splits and bonuses that prices are skewed. If anyone has clean data, please feel free to share with me..CNXIT data is preferred rather than INFY..I will post an analysis after that.

EDITS: Market open: Covered all shorts. I am just going to trade intraday from now on. Atleast until some more clarity emerges. Did some longs..now covered and doing some shorts..Will keep doing this for some time

10:00 AM: Interesting..Looks like intra resistances are starting to kick in..Back in short like I mentioned..But I am doing intra for now..So I wont be posting updates on trades from now. But my broader view is posted above.

Best,
Lee

Oct 12th/13th

Well after I well and slept yesterday, the market just took off and looks very strong right now. Even I have started questioning my earlier views - have to say looks damn bullish. I am still holding the shorts with the hedges. Today I will roll the hedges upward. Oct 12/13th - this is the timeframe I mentioned for a top. We are there. Now who has the guts to short? lol :)

I will be back a little later with more thoughts. Today we have to see how the market deals with 5150-5200. Above this and I think game changes.

Best,
Lee

INFY..

..Thats what will drive things today. And well the IIP number also although to a much lesser extent. We can speculate a lot about the results - IF it will be good or bad..But ultimately its the markets's REACTION to the results that will matter.

I dont have much more to add to yesterday's post. Except I am beginning to see a lot of bullish signs but my timing model is still saying low at end of October. So I will respect my system. Will continue to try and short but I will be reducing my aggressiveness on this for the time being. Its better to live and fight another day. Things are murky right now. Hit and Run trades seem to be the best option for now.

EDIT- 11:15AM IST: Well 2 big new items are out. Not so impressed with action so far. My earlier call was for a top today or tomorrow(Oct 12th/13th timeframe). So far it is looking quite possible. Reshorted today back at higher levels. I have hedged with 5100 calls. Now will wait and watch. We need to get below 4900 area to start feeling comfy on bearish positions.

Best,
Lee

Dicey here...

...Have to admit yesterday's rally was a good one..I dont care much for rallies that show a big gap up and then do nothing for the full day. Yesterday's was good..Went and tested support at which I covered a big amount and then tried to reshort as we went higher. I say it is good because this is how a strong rally is built. Test support and then try to make a move higher.

Not that it makes much of difference. Today also looks like a gap up. So now I am uncertain how to deal with this. Do I cover? Do I hold and watch? Do I add to shorts? Dont know. Dangerous here either position. As I mentioned before, the Oct 12/13th date was when I was expecting a top to come. So still on target but price wise this is going much above what I expected. Today if it clears 5030 and stays above, it opens up the 5150-5200 range again. So lot of pain to take if you are short. So I am confused :) Whats new. If we go above 5200 without much of correction, then have to admit we might be going much higher. However I still think we have one more downmove lurking in the shadows which will come once majority is once again bullish. Too many unknowns out there..Infy results is another one..I have posted some thoughts on this in earlier post's comments section.

However, for today, will wait for clues after opening and act accordingly. Will post updates. I am holding some shorts so its a toss up as to what to do at this point. Will watch price action and make a decision.

EDITS:
1. Looks like going up..Covered almost all shorts..Will look to readd back later. Intraday scalping till then

2. Very uncertain here..Shorting back in slowly. They never make it easy do they?

3. Part booking and reshorting higher might be a good plan of action here. Will add back later. INFY results is also a wild card here.



Best,
Lee

Market Updates - Oct 10th

So its pretty sure now I think..That we got the 5 week low on Oct 4th. And that we are in the last bounce from there. I think this is an ABC move from the lows and I think I mentioned last week, we have done the A looks like and in a B now after which we might get a small move high in a weak C. I mentioned Oct 12th as an important date. I see this bounce or sideways move will continue into then. Price wise I already mentioned - 4910-4950 range and then 5030. On Friday market couldnt sustain above 4900 and came down from there. So shorts in that area did well. If we get some more down from here, part booking and reshorting higher will be good. Trade management is important to reduce risk and also remain on right side of the market.



Ok so bottom line is - 5 week low came on Oct 4th. This is the last 5 week cycle before our expected 80 week nest of lows(nest of lows means its also the 40, 20, 10 and 5 week lows). So its an important low. And it will come around 5 weeks from Oct 4th. So around the Nov1st week-Oct 31st timeframe. Will be watching closely in this timeframe for a low and also a chance to buy into some good stocks on cash side. I know there were some comments and questions around this - remember I am waiting for broader market to bottom before looking at stocks. So we will start doing that in Oct end.

But first more work to be done on the downside. Lets watch Oct12/13th as a possible timeframe for topping out this 5 week cycle and heading down. Why does it top early? Because its a bearish 5 week cycle being so late in this 80 week cycle. So it tops early and should head down for 3 weeks or so after that into our 80 week low. Price might remain in this range until Oct 12th before heading down hard OR it might have started already - I am not very sure. But risk reward favours short side greatly right now until a clean close above 5030-5050 range. Keep shorting the rallies till then with some trade management.

A note to all - Please dont ask me questions about you personal trades. I will no longer answer. I did not ask you to get into any trade - then why consult with me on getting out? Is it fair? Also dont ask me questions like - is market going up? Is it going down etc etc. I am posting my clear cut views here daily. If you cannot get that info from here, then I cannot help you. Sorry for being a bit brash. But I have been getting some tiring mails and chats. See its technical doubt or a genuine question, I will answer. Just cannot spend time and energy to try and help with others trades at this point of time.

Will post edits if anything new comes up today.

Best,
Lee

5 week low is probably in

Yeah I know. Sucks doesnt it? Holidays in our market..And then the GAP from HELL when we reopen..LOL..I have always wondered why we dont have futures trading after hours. Kinda sucks when all the US markets have derivatives of our indexes and stocks. Kind of dumb if you ask me. But its what we have to work with right now.

Market will always throw us curve balls and bouncers. That is the aim of the market. To separate you from your money.

So looks like a big gap up today. I alluded to this possibility a couple of times in earlier posts. I.E that the 5 week low might be in. This is one reason why I covered shorts on that day I missed the 100 point downswing. Yes it happens. I tend to get these intuitions and signals a few days early. I had a feeling the 5 week low was coming in that day which is why I covered the shorts. What use? :) Still went and entered some shorts past 2 trading days. Nowhere fully as before covering but still around 40-50% short. Still the very good thing here is because of this conflict in my mind, I hedged up nicely..almost too much I think..So today's possible big gap will not injure me..maybe slightly. So I cannot complain.

Updated Hurst Chart -



Ok I mentioned in the last post that it is possible, the 5 week low has already come in. And this chart kind of puts lot of evidence to this view. I earlier thought the 5 week low might come in the Oct 10-14th timeframe as I had posted before. BUT when we talk about lows and cycles we need to give some allowance to the timeframe. So it looks like the 5 week low might have come in on Oct 4th. Ok now coming to possible upside from this low. Remember, this is the last 5 week cycle, so its a bearish cycle. So this is still a bear bounce. Quick and sharp. But it will also quickly roll over. Need to wait for it thought. Price points are 4910-4950 and 5030 levels. One of this areas should provide the rollover and return to downtrend. Before that we have 4860. So lot of points but short covering in atleast first few hours will happen, after which we might get back to the trend.

I think until next week mid. Oct 12th i.e, we might not see major downmoves and will be in a corrective sequence..i.e an ABC move..So A might complete today, B down will come and then maybe a weak C..I feel it might not get above 5030 level for this full corrective move. We shall wait and see.

Another thing what this new evidence does to us is it puts the 80 week low that we were expecting in Nov mid to come a bit early maybe in the Oct end timeframe to Nov 1st timeframe. So need to watch out for that. Either way since we are so close to a major low, caution is advised on bearish positions and we need to start looking for evidence of a more sustainable longer term low very soon.

I will post updates. I have some shorts. I might close them on opening and just keep the hedges I have. This in itself will put me in profit. Have some puts and NF shorts and more than 150% hedges on them because everything was uncertain. So will close/play with them accordingly.

EDITS:

1. 10:00AM Update - Covered all shorts at open. Holding the hedges which are in good profit right now.

2. 11:30AM Update - Covering the hedges..And slowly building into shorts..I might keep some higher hedges just in case. Just remember I think the bounce can go up to the Oct 12th timeframe.


Best,
Lee

No Update Today

Very tired..Going to sleep early. I will try and put up a detailed post tomorrow. Position update is short(40% only) - I plan to hedge today and also add to the shorts over time. I am expecting some sort of possible bounce(small chance only but it is out there) over next few days(did the 5 week low come in early?)..And then the downtrend to resume heavily. Not sure on this as I havent done any analysis yet. Will do so tomorrow.

Best,
Lee

Not Much..

...of an update today..Same as yesterday..Looks like market is trying to bounce..However I really doubt it gets much far in this bounce..4900 is a good point to watch..If it gets there..And if it can sustain for atleast 1 hourly close. Till then downside risks remain and risk reward favours shorts. Remember we are trying to build a bottom but until we do so...Sudden downside moves will keep coming in..Atleast until the 5 week low expected in Oct mid and the 80 week low expected in Nov 1st/2nd week.

EDITS:
1. I am covering some shorts here to reduce risk..and also like I mentioned before to sleep well..It removes lot of pressure to book some profits and let the rest ride..And if market does bounce back from here, we can always add back them shorts. Still short in the range of 60% or so. Whatever I booked now are shorts from the 5000 area - so excellent profits also.

2. Not sure anymore..Today's action is quite uninspiring from a bearish perspective. I am reducing shorts even more to just a bare bare minimum(just token position) at around 4840..Earlier shorts were cut at around 4830 and below. For now market is looking strong. I will readd based on market action tomorrow. Going to bed.

3. Gotta love it. Has it topped for today? I am readding shorts again..But in a very phased manner. I want to have shorting power till 4950-5000 or so. So going slow and steady. Started from 4860 NF.

4. Definitely not looking like it wants to hold 4860NF..Added some more when we got there just now..Market not letting me sleep!

5. Stopping out again on the shorts since its sustaining above 4860..Shoulda gone slept lol..Will come back tomorrow fresh!

6. LOL this is too much...As soon as I cut the shorts, market goes down :(
Yeah I got up just for this..Shorting back in slowly on this pullback. Gotta love the market though for the conditioning it does.


Best,
Lee

The Next Two Weeks

So last week was quite a tumultuous week with expiry also thrown in. I have posted my thoughts on expiry in earlier posts. There is no doubt that some kind of manipulation always comes in on expiry which will throw us off.

So now we are back to the trend which is down. Important price levels are at 4900 which I have been saying for a while. Break this and interest goes down to 4800 which we should do today. Break of this and a 3rd test of 4720 is assured and we should break that this time. Bottom line is I believe the past few weeks consolidation and breakdown level of 5200 test is complete and we will break 4720 soon.



As you can see from the chart 4720 is an important support cluster. More accurately 4720-4675 level is support. Break of this and a test of lower levels like 4400 will be on the radar. One step at a time.

Hurst wise, the Oct 10-14th timeframe should give us the 5 week low. And I expect this to be a very very weak low being the last one in this cycle. We might have a couple of days bounce from there before continuing along the primary trend into our 80 week low. Expected Nov mid timeframe. Again lets go one step at a time.





I shorted last Friday..Not fully but ok enough. So today if we gap down heavily it might not be a great time to add to shorts but we should have bounces which will give us that. Will post updates.

I will do a long term post sometime within the next few weeks. Because we are getting closer to an important low which should offer some safe tradable opportunities on the long side for several months.

EDIT:
1. Is that a bearish island formed on the charts? I can see it on the intraday chart on Ilango's site. If so, the its going to be bad for the bulls for the next few weeks I feel. For now a bounce seems to be on. Use this bounce to build into shorts if not already short..If already short, then can add a bit more which is what I will be doing.

Best,
Lee