New blog

Hello Everyone,

Its been a while. Just thought I would put up a post updating on things. I have quit my day job in IT and am now a full time trader. Not doing too bad considering all things. I am associated with a hedge fund at the moment with a plan of starting something of my own in the not too distant future.

I dont trade India anymore. Fully US right now. My focus is on Stocks and Gold. Nowadays I use options more extensively to control risk. Anyhow, this is my new blog below. Just wanted to start something new and anyhow this site's name doesnt suit my purpose at the moment. Visit if you are interested but remember I dont trade India anymore though I might trade some emerging market ETFs at times. The site is meant to be more of a daily trading journal for me nowadays.

http://princelytrades.blogspot.com/

Best,
PM

Update

A quick update. I exited longs last week at around 5400 and above. A gain of around 8% on a portfolio of 40L. Not great...but not bad considering it was an easy trade/no daytrading/ easy just sitting on it for few months.

Why? Because I expect the 40week low after 4 weeks. It should come in around beginning of October.
We should have a bounce back or rally after that.

After that the next major low - the 80 week and likely 4.5yr low comes in around May/June next year.

So a period of having to be cautious. Maybe we will get a generational buy like Oct 2008 next year sometime. However price need not go very low as all big bears are expecting. Wait and watch. Right now I am fully out of market but waiting to see how the 40 week low comes about to see if I should buy for a 2-3 month rally.

I may not post any longer here :) Sorry just too much going on nowadays.

All the best to all.

Best,
Lee

Quick Update and FLD Projection - 6/30

Quick update on current cyclic view. 20 week low is confirmed. Also 20 week FLD is crossed giving us a projection of around 5700 in this 20 week cycle. We need to wait and see if it will be achieved. It was a big breakout of sorts on Friday. Could just be the game changer bulls were looking for.

Sachin, generally I dont like doing stock cycles because it gets skewed up. Any how here is the SBI cycle phasing. Looks ok enough however I am not very happy with it :) I prefer to focus on index and then go top down from there. Also stock data will have issues with it most of the time. If you see the chart closely you will understand what I mean.

Not updating portfolio today.I will do in around 2 weeks from now. Its now around 7% up. I will do some rebalancing next week on it.

Best,

Lee

June 24th - Update

Hello Folks,
Been a while. Since I am not trading the markets anymore - Instead operating on a much longer term timeframe, I dont feel the need to constantly watch or worry about the markets anymore :) Its a good thing. So because of this, did not feel like updating for some time. But I think now its time to put up my latest view.
So here goes:

As I mentioned some time back, weakness was expected into June end as we moved into the 20 week low. I think we got it and now we are climbing out of it. So this 20week low was the first major low after the 80 week low in Dec. So after this, the 40 week low may be sometime in October only. We might have a good but choppy advance with dips ofcourse until the 40 week peaks. Lets see how it turns out. Hurst view chart below.

One very weird thing is that the US market cycles have diverged from the Indian one. No longer in sync. Means US is now doing the 40week low but we are working with the 20 week low. Interesting.

Next a normal chart look.Weekly is still on buy with SL of 4770. It came very close to giving a sell but just held on. Chart looks bullish on an intermediate timeframe. I will hold my portfolio until I get a weekly sell.

Portfolio screenshot. Small differences. Got rid of several non performers. Added to performers. And I guess added in VENKEYS as a new stock.

As a result of cutting losses - its a 1 lakh loss. So the profit you see of 1.3lakh is in effect 30K only. Just clearing this lest anyone thinks I am misrepresenting anything!

Not very great I know....but then considering I started buying at 5350 odd, I think ok. And we may just may be on a launching pad here. Lets wait and watch.

Best,
Lee

Update - 4/22

Stock portfolio as requested by few readers. This was bought at around 2nd week of March or so. And then kept on adding until last week. The point to note is Index has actually moved down since I started buying but portfolio as as whole has moved up. Presented without bias. Presented as taken from my portfolio tracker.

You might wonder why I have so many stocks in my portfolio here. I have explained it before but its simple. When I start, I have a big number but then I cull it down over time. What doesnt perform gets thrown out and whatever performed the best gets added to many times over every single week. If you see the allocation amounts you can understand what I am talking about. I study the charts weekly to make a decision on this. But I dont spend more than few hours a week every week. So its nice and easy and fits my work schedule right now. Ok I wont say nice and easy but it is very comfortable now for me to do this. I love it and am feeling at peace with the market. And if I can make some 25-35% from the market yearly consistently..Consistently being the key word..then I am happy..more than Happy. And I have tried to track this method back in time..there have been years where returns of more than 100% have been attained. Ofcourse not possible every year but once in 3-5 years such a year will come and thats when portfolios like this outperform the market many many times over. Lets track this method out in real time over next several months/years..As long as I am able to actively post.

Coming to market views. Nowadays since the weekly is on a buy, I dont care too much about trying to predict day to day moves. I am buying all dips looking for the next big bull market to unfold. I expect there will be some more dips going forward maybe until May end time frame. This is where a major cluster of lows is expected. I will post a detailed update later. I will try and make a point to post weekly from now on. Atleast a snapshot of my portfolio so you know how it looks. The funny thing is before the Friday flash crash, this portfolio was almost 8% up!. That certainly took its toll. But I dont think the BULL is done yet contrary to all the popular views and doom and gloom out there today.

More Later.

Best,
Lee

2012

Been a while since my last update. Had a good time off from the markets.

Now several things here when I look at the conventional charts and also the Hurst charts. No low has really been confirmed yet. Even after this much rally. You would remember earlier I was looking for a low somewhere in Nov timeframe - the 80 week low - and then a good rally from there. Now even though we got some rally, I am not sure if this was the real long lasting low. I mean to say I expect more downside this year. I dont think it will be easy to trade this because of the sharp rallies in between.

Bottom line for me is that my weekly mechanical system remains on sell and will until we take out 5400 conclusively on the upside. This will come down to 5200 in March timeframe. So if we manage to go above 5200 in March, a new bull market will be confirmed as per my standards.

I know its big points and long timeframe but I am shifting my trading to this kind of timeframe for now esp because I dont have the time for shorter term trading right now and esp for this reason I will not update my blog as frequently going forward. Weekly signals are what I will be trading going ahead. And from a Hurst perspective, when I get a more reliable view, I will post the same. Right now Hurst is a big mess and like any system it has its good and bad times. Right now, until a good low is confirmed, I will not trust it. And this new 80 week cycle seems to be a bear cycle which is why I expect 2012 will also be a bear year atleast until mid year. Well the market has to disprove this by trading above 5400 in next 3-4 weeks or 5200 in next 10 weeks.

Short term I dont have much guidance to offer except that we seem to be getting into topping range right now and not much more upside is left near term. I think there are many other blogs out there like Kumar Sir's or Ilango's which give much better short term guidance..:) No need to rely on me. I will post from time to time..Maybe a weekly or even bi-weekly update going ahead. Lot of extra responsibilities have come up for me workwise during the past few months - So I really think this is the way to go for now.

Trade Safe.

Best,
Lee

Week Ahead - 2

For the same of completeness, here is how the cyclic picture looks like now. 80 week low is ahead of us sometime. I think maybe b/w now and first few days of Jan. This is my best guess for now. I am however not trading it positionally. Just hit and run.



When we have bigger bearish cycles like this one, its normal for them to extend and that is what is happening right now. Thats why trading rules are needed - to keep us out of trouble. Run your trading like a business instead of blaming your tools and everybody else except yourself :)

Ok. Thats it from me for a while..Holidays, Christmas, New year all coming up..Gonna take it easy for a while.

Have a great Christmas and New Year..Everybody.

Best,
Lee